Hypothesis

Publishing an integrated report voluntarily should improve a firm’s information environment, sharpening analyst earnings forecasts and raising firm value.

What failed

Across an international sample of 167 listed companies that publish an integrated report voluntarily, there was no significant effect of that publication either on analyst earnings forecast accuracy or on firm value.

Broken assumption

An integrated report gives investors information they did not already have.

Why

The authors suggest voluntary adopters are already unusually transparent, so the report adds nothing incremental, and expect the benefits to appear where integrated reporting is mandatory.

From the published paper: Wahl et al. Business Strategy and the Environment, 2020. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Reminding people of death would increase national patriotism, as the traditional mortality-salience effect predicts, and would also shift democratic values, ingroup identification and pro-sociality.

What failed

Neither a lab experiment (N = 101, Norway) nor a larger online experiment (N = 784, US) replicated the mortality-salience effect on national patriotism. Conceptual replications on democratic values, processing speed, psychophysiological responses, ingroup identification and pro-sociality were not supported either.

Broken assumption

Death reminders reliably increase defence of one's worldview, such as national patriotism.

Why

The authors conclude only that the effect of death reminders is less robust and generalizable than assumed, noting that transparent, high-powered replications had been lacking despite several hundred original studies.

From the published paper: Sætrevik et al. Meta-Psychology, 2022. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Structural changes to the axon initial segment in presymptomatic ALS mice would impair motoneurones' ability to fire action potentials repetitively.

What failed

In adult presymptomatic G127X SOD1 mice, axon initial segments of alpha and gamma motoneurones were shorter (by 6.6% and 11.8%) and wider, yet in vivo intracellular recordings found no difference in single action potentials or in repetitive firing.

Broken assumption

A shorter axon initial segment necessarily reduces a neurone's excitability.

Why

The geometric change was real but had no detectable functional consequence within the normal working range of firing frequencies; the abstract does not say why.

From the published paper: Bonnevie et al. Scientific Reports, 2020. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Azithromycin given early to infants born before 30 weeks' gestation would increase survival without moderate or severe chronic lung disease of prematurity.

What failed

In 796 infants across 28 UK neonatal units, survival without moderate or severe chronic lung disease at 36 weeks was 42% with azithromycin vs 45% with placebo (adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.55–1.29, p = 0.43). Ureaplasma colonisation did not change the treatment effect.

Broken assumption

Macrolide prophylaxis prevents chronic lung disease in at-risk preterm infants, including those colonised with Ureaplasma.

Why

The trial, designed to settle conflicting systematic reviews, found no benefit overall or in Ureaplasma-colonised infants; adverse events were similar between arms.

From the published paper: Lowe et al. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 2024. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Because knocking out Sting prevented neurodegeneration in Pink1/Prkn-deficient mice under mitochondrial stress, removing Sting in Drosophila would likewise rescue Pink1/parkin mutant defects.

What failed

Loss of Sting, or of its downstream effector Relish, did not suppress the behavioural deficits or the mitochondrial disruption of Drosophila Pink1 or parkin mutants, nor of an mtDNA mutator model.

Broken assumption

STING-driven inflammation is a conserved cause of Pink1/parkin pathology across species.

Why

The authors conclude that the phenotypes caused by losing Pink1/parkin are not universally driven by aberrant STING activation; the mouse mechanism did not carry over to flies.

From the published paper: Lee et al. Scientific Reports, 2020. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

For weak, briefly presented and masked stimuli, humans can discriminate above chance without any awareness of them.

What failed

Using a bias-free procedure for measuring subjective confidence, the study found no evidence of unconscious perception: participants’ behaviour matched a Bayesian ideal observer even though the stimuli were visually masked, implying the thresholds for subjective awareness and objective discrimination are effectively the same.

Broken assumption

Above-chance discrimination of masked stimuli can happen without conscious experience.

Why

The authors argue the apparent dissociation in earlier work came from biased measures of subjective awareness, and report an online survey in which most experts acknowledge the lack of convincing evidence while continuing to hold the belief.

From the published paper: Peters et al. eLife, 2015. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Extended-release niacin with laropiprant, added to statin therapy, would reduce major vascular events by further lowering LDL and raising HDL cholesterol.

What failed

In 25,673 adults with vascular disease over a median 3.9 years, major vascular events occurred in 13.2% on niacin-laropiprant vs 13.7% on placebo (rate ratio 0.96, P=0.29), while serious disturbances of diabetes control rose by 3.7 percentage points.

Broken assumption

Further lowering LDL and raising HDL with niacin reduces vascular events once patients are on an effective statin.

Target engaged

Yes

Why

The lipid changes were real but modest on top of effective statin therapy (LDL about 10 mg/dL lower, HDL about 6 mg/dL higher) and did not translate into fewer events — while adverse events increased.

From the published paper: HPS2-THRIVE Collaborative Group. N Engl J Med, 2014. NCT00461630 ↗

Hypothesis

Alpha entrainment by tACS, reported with an anterior/posterior two-electrode montage, would be robust enough to survive scaling up to a multi-electrode montage and changes in the participants' background task, raising subsequent alpha power.

What failed

A multi-electrode analogue of the earlier anterior/posterior stimulation, given while background tasks varied, did not reproduce the reported alpha entrainment: subsequent alpha power was not modulated.

Broken assumption

tACS alpha after-effects are robust to task context and to moving from two-electrode to multi-electrode montages.

Why

The abstract gives no mechanism; the authors say more work is needed to define when tACS alpha entrainment applies.

From the published paper: Fekete et al. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 2018. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Media routinely used to simulate the same body environment are interchangeable for testing how a collagen scaffold degrades.

What failed

The three media produced major differences in the mechanical properties and mass loss of identical collagen scaffolds, while micro-CT, X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy showed only minor structural differences, so the measured degradation depended largely on which "equivalent" medium was chosen.

Broken assumption

Any standard simulated body fluid stands in for the same in vivo environment.

Why

The authors point out that no general recommendation exists for selecting a simulated body environment, and argue results must not be simplified from a single medium.

From the published paper: Suchý et al. Materials, 2021. ↗CC BY