Hypothesis
The observed correlation between effective spin and mass ratio is a property of the binary black hole population itself.
What failed
Fitting the two recently identified subpopulations separately, the correlation weakened significantly or disappeared altogether for the low-mass subpopulation once a second effective-spin distribution was allowed for the high-mass one, and Bayesian evidence strongly favoured two separate spin distributions over one mass-ratio-dependent distribution (ln B > 4.2).
Broken assumption
A correlation measured across the whole catalogue reflects a relationship within a single population.
Why
The authors conclude the correlation in the overall population is explained by the superposition of two distinct subpopulations, the high-mass one plausibly from hierarchical mergers.
From the published paper: Li et al. The Astrophysical Journal, 2025. ↗CC BY