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Physics and Astronomy› Astronomy and Astrophysics› Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research

Gravitational-wave astronomy — Subsolar-mass primordial black holes in low mass-ratio binaries

Submitted 2026-10-22

Field: Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and AstrophysicsType: No effect foundArea: gravitational-wave astronomyTarget: Subsolar-mass primordial black holes in low mass-ratio binariesStage: full study

Hypothesis

LIGO-Virgo O2 data could detect, or at least meaningfully constrain, primordial black hole dark matter through mergers pairing a subsolar component with a primary above about 2 solar masses.

What failed

Four candidates passed a signal-to-noise threshold of 8 and a false alarm rate of 2 per year, but none was statistically significant; assuming a null, the 90% upper limits on the primordial black hole dark-matter fraction stayed above 1 for every mass function and both early and late binary formation prescriptions, so no part of the parameter space was excluded.

Broken assumption

Existing detector sensitivity suffices to constrain primordial black holes in the QCD-transition mass window.

Why

The authors state plainly that O2 sensitivity is insufficient to place a meaningful constraint under the assumed mass model.

From the published paper: Phukon et al. Physical review. D/Physical review. D., 2026. ↗CC BY

Research ideas from this failure

Unvetted lead — read the papers

New hypotheses this failure suggests, each with a crucial experiment, a rival explanation of the original result, and the papers it rests on. Written by AI from paper titles and abstracts found on OpenAlex (and Europe PMC, for life and health sciences).

Related failures (2)

Matched on shared genes, mechanisms and ways of failing as well as wording. Each shows why it matched — treat these as leads rather than verdicts.

Links in published research

Where this experiment's genes are known to matter outside its own research area, and the papers behind those links. Sources: Open Targets Platform and Europe PMC.