Hypothesis

The same soil type in the same region would hold clearly different bacterial communities under different land uses.

What failed

16S rRNA pyrosequencing across four land uses on one soil type found broadly similar communities, with no difference in diversity or richness between natural and disturbed areas; measured microbial activity did not line up with the sequencing data.

Broken assumption

Converting native grassland to farming or plantations reshapes the soil bacterial community in a way sequencing will detect.

Why

The authors take the mismatch to mean that the composition and the functioning of soil bacterial communities are not necessarily coupled.

From the published paper: Lupatini et al. PLoS ONE, 2013. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Adding a circumferential cerclage wire to tension band wiring stabilises displaced transverse patella fractures and aids healing.

What failed

Among 72 eligible patients, 27 treated with the added cerclage and 45 without, rates of fixation failure, nonunion and revision surgery were indistinguishable (p = 0.620 for each); the risk associations that did trend upwards were age over 60 or 70 and superficially placed K-wires, the last of which trended worse within the cerclage group itself.

Broken assumption

Adding fixation hardware makes the construct more stable.

Why

The authors conclude the extra wire may be needless and argue correct surgical technique, in particular K-wire depth and control of both wire ends, matters more.

From the published paper: Yang et al. BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders, 2018. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Intercropping trees with a crop would raise soil microbial diversity along with soil fertility, relative to poplar monoculture.

What failed

High-throughput sequencing showed no significant effect of intercropping on bacterial or fungal alpha diversity, even though total phosphorus rose, the carbon-to-nitrogen ratio fell and community composition shifted, with fungal composition up and bacterial composition down.

Broken assumption

Mixing plant species above ground raises microbial diversity in the soil below.

Why

The abstract gives no explanation for the diversity null; the authors report that phosphorus correlated most strongly with bacterial diversity and pH with fungal diversity.

From the published paper: Liu et al. Frontiers in Microbiology, 2024. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

The wave of laws written to stop shark finning would reduce the number of sharks killed by fisheries.

What failed

Global shark fishing mortality rose from at least 76 to 80 million animals between 2012 and 2019 (about 25 million from threatened species). Linking mortality to regulations showed that anti-finning laws did not lower mortality; only regional fishing or retention bans showed some success.

Broken assumption

Banning the practice of finning reduces how many sharks are killed.

Why

The abstract does not give a mechanism; it contrasts finning rules, which did not cut deaths, with outright fishing or retention bans, which did help.

From the published paper: Worm et al. Science, 2024. ↗Public domain

Hypothesis

In the Palaeogene, the palaeo-Tsangpo drained Tibet into a precursor of Myanmar's Irrawaddy River, so central Myanmar's Eocene sediments should carry a Tibetan source signature.

What failed

Provenance analysis of the Late Middle Eocene–Early Oligocene Pondaung and Yaw Formations (bulk-rock isotopes, petrography, palaeoflow) found no evidence for a palaeo Tsangpo–Irrawaddy River, at least in the Late Eocene.

Broken assumption

The Tsangpo already drained into a proto-Irrawaddy in the Late Eocene.

Why

Low-grade metamorphic fragments, heterogeneous Sr–Nd values and westward palaeoflow point to a proximal source on the eastern Asian margin — an Andean-type cordillera along the Burmese margin — rather than Tibet, although the paper notes Burmese and Tibetan sources share lithological features.

From the published paper: Licht et al. Journal of the Geological Society, 2013. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Signaling data from a mobile network could enumerate backcountry travellers in avalanche terrain, supplying the exposure denominator needed for a fatal-accident rate.

What failed

The method produced estimates for the 2019/2020 Norwegian winter season (13,666 phones, 0–118 per day) and weak correlations with daylight, weekends and bulletin views, but validation against GPS reference positions revealed discrepancies between estimated and true positions.

Broken assumption

Mobile-network signaling data locates people accurately enough outside cities to count them in specific terrain.

Why

The authors attribute the mismatch to an algorithm designed for urban mobility and to the long distances between base transceiver stations in mountainous terrain, concluding this limits signaling data's usefulness outside urban regions.

From the published paper: Toft et al. Journal of Trial and Error, 2023. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Maintenance vaccination against telomerase after first-line platinum chemotherapy would extend overall survival in HLA-A*201-positive metastatic NSCLC, since a TERT-specific CD8 response is associated with longer survival.

What failed

Of 221 randomized patients, 190 were analysed; median overall survival was 14.3 months with the vaccine against 11.3 with placebo (p = 0.86), missing the primary endpoint, with time to treatment failure 3.6 versus 3.5 months and no objective responses. Toxicity stayed below grade 3.

Broken assumption

Inducing a TERT-specific immune response in vaccinated patients translates into a survival benefit for the treated population.

Why

The authors point out that the 29.2% of vaccinated patients who mounted a lasting TERT-specific response did live longer (21.3 versus 13.4 months), and argue future work must identify that subgroup in advance.

From the published paper: team et al. British Journal of Cancer, 2020. ↗CC BY

Hypothesis

Clearing the parasite with benznidazole in patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy would slow cardiac clinical deterioration.

What failed

Among 2,854 patients followed a mean 5.4 years, the composite cardiac outcome occurred in 27.5% vs 29.1% on placebo (HR 0.93, P=0.31).

Broken assumption

Clearing the parasite slows clinical progression once Chagas cardiomyopathy is established.

Target engaged

Yes

Why

The target was hit: blood PCR for T. cruzi turned negative in 66.2% vs 33.5% at the end of treatment. Reducing detectable parasite did not reduce clinical progression once cardiomyopathy was established.

From the published paper: Morillo CA, Marin-Neto JA, Avezum A, et al. (BENEFIT). N Engl J Med, 2015. NCT00123916 ↗

Hypothesis

Cancer-trained predictors and machine-learning tools with comprehensive feature spaces should separate cancer-driving missense mutations from passengers better than simple conservation-based methods.

What failed

Tested with high-frequency polymorphisms as neutrals and recurrent COSMIC and newly reported somatic mutations as positives, no method or combination of methods exceeded 81% accuracy; machine-learning predictors swung with the choice of positive set, cancer-trained methods did not improve on general predictors, and metapredictors did not beat MutationAssessor used alone.

Broken assumption

Training a predictor on cancer mutations makes it better at identifying drivers.

Why

The authors conclude that more sophisticated feature integration is still needed, and report performance disparities including differences in coverage and tool interdependence.

From the published paper: Gnad et al. BMC Genomics, 2013. ↗CC BY