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Environmental Science› Global and Planetary Change› Climate variability and models

Hydrology and climate change — Temperature scaling of extreme streamflow versus extreme precipitation

Submitted 2026-10-22

Field: Environmental Science › Global and Planetary ChangeType: No effect foundArea: hydrology and climate changeTarget: Temperature scaling of extreme streamflow versus extreme precipitationStage: full study

Hypothesis

Because heavy precipitation intensifies at higher temperatures, flood-producing streamflow extremes in non-urban catchments would rise with temperature in the same way.

What failed

Using global catchment datasets, there was little sign that heavier rainfall at higher temperatures led to matching increases in streamflow; most regions showed streamflow extremes decreasing with higher temperature. Only for the rarest events in small catchments did the two scale together.

Broken assumption

More intense extreme rainfall in a warmer climate translates directly into more intense flooding.

Why

Catchment conditions such as initial soil moisture dampen the streamflow response; these matter less only as events get more extreme and catchments smaller.

From the published paper: Wasko et al. Scientific Reports, 2017. ↗CC BY

Research ideas from this failure

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Links in published research

Where this experiment's genes are known to matter outside its own research area, and the papers behind those links. Sources: Open Targets Platform and Europe PMC.