Hypothesis
India's 2008 RSBY insurance scheme for poor households would reduce their out-of-pocket health spending.
What failed
Difference-in-differences on three national survey waves (N = 346,615) found no effect on the likelihood, level, or catastrophic share of inpatient spending, nor on outpatient spending. The chance of any out-of-pocket spending actually rose by 30%, and non-medical spending rose 5%.
Broken assumption
Enrolling poor households in hospital insurance lowers what they pay out of pocket for care.
Why
The abstract does not give a mechanism; it concludes the scheme was ineffective at reducing the spending burden on poor households.
From the published paper: Karan et al. Social Science & Medicine, 2017. ↗CC BY